The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of a survey of experts on the macroeconomic situation.
The analysis focused on several key indicators: the price of Brent crude oil, the country’s economic growth, inflation, and the base interest rate.
Oil prices and economic growth
According to the National Bank, in August, experts raised their forecasts for oil prices.
The average price of Brent crude in 2025 was revised upward from $68.9 to $69.5 per barrel.
For 2026 and 2027, prices are also expected to stabilize at $69.5 per barrel (previous forecasts were $69.0 and $68.5, respectively).
Reference: Kazakhstan’s state budget for 2025 is based on an oil price of $75 per barrel.
Forecasts for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth were also revised upward:
- 2025: from 5.1% to 5.2%
- 2026: from 4.6% to 4.7%
At the same time, expectations for 2027 were slightly reduced to 4.4%.
Inflation and the base rate
Survey participants also raised their inflation forecasts for 2025–2026:
- 2025: 11.3% (previously 11.0%)
- 2026: 9.5% (previously 9.0%)
For 2027, projections were lowered, with inflation now expected to ease from 7.0% to 6.5%.
Reference: According to National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov, Kazakhstan will continue striving to reduce inflation to 5%.
Experts also expect the base interest rate to remain unchanged at 16.5% in 2025.
For 2026, the forecast was raised from 14.0% to 14.3%.
In 2027, as inflationary pressures are expected to weaken, the rate is projected to decline from 11.8% to 11.3%.
Reference: The National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its next scheduled decision on the base rate on August 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM Astana time.
